IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.3	#257
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.5	#130
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.9	#287

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.4	#206

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.4%	7.6%	3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.1	14.9	15.2

.500 or above	31.8%	54.5%	26.6%
.500 or above in Conference	50.6%	64.9%	47.3%
Conference Champion	3.9%	6.8%	3.2%
Last Place in Conference	8.1%	4.0%	9.1%

First Four	1.2%	1.1%	1.3%
First Round	3.8%	7.0%	3.1%
Second Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Away) - 18.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	2 - 7	3 - 11
Quad 4	10 - 6	13 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	141	@ Saint Louis	L	62-71	19%
Nov 09, 2019	206	Maryland Baltimore Co.	W	66-65	53%
Nov 11, 2019	193	@ Dartmouth	L	68-74	28%
Nov 15, 2019	204	@ Mercer	L	68-74	30%
Nov 20, 2019	163	Florida Atlantic	L	69-71	42%
Nov 23, 2019	28	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	60-81	3%
Nov 29, 2019	262	North Dakota	W	75-72	61%
Nov 30, 2019	302	Campbell	W	72-66	70%
Dec 01, 2019	122	Georgia Southern	L	76-81	32%
Dec 04, 2019	185	@ Florida International	L	81-87	29%
Dec 07, 2019	273	Robert Morris	W	69-65	64%
Dec 18, 2019	224	@ South Dakota St.	L	74-79	34%
Dec 29, 2019	64	@ USC	L	66-83	7%
Jan 02, 2020	87	Liberty	L	61-69	24%
Jan 04, 2020	177	Lipscomb	L	77-78	47%
Jan 09, 2020	155	@ North Florida	L	74-83	23%
Jan 11, 2020	336	@ Stetson	W	76-72	63%
Jan 16, 2020	320	Kennesaw St.	W	76-68	74%
Jan 18, 2020	313	@ North Alabama	W	71-70	52%
Jan 25, 2020	175	NJIT	L	69-70	45%
Jan 30, 2020	298	@ Jacksonville	L	74-75	49%
Feb 01, 2020	87	@ Liberty	L	58-72	12%
Feb 06, 2020	336	Stetson	W	79-69	79%
Feb 08, 2020	155	North Florida	L	77-80	41%
Feb 13, 2020	320	@ Kennesaw St.	W	73-71	55%
Feb 15, 2020	177	@ Lipscomb	L	74-81	27%
Feb 22, 2020	175	@ NJIT	L	66-73	27%
Feb 27, 2020	298	Jacksonville	W	77-71	68%
Feb 29, 2020	313	North Alabama	W	74-67	71%
Projected Record						12 - 17	8 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.3	0.8	1.3	0.9	0.4	0.1		3.9	1st
2nd									0.0	0.3	1.3	3.2	2.8	1.1	0.1				8.7	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.6	3.2	5.1	3.3	0.8	0.0					13.1	3rd
4th							0.1	1.4	4.7	6.8	2.9	0.4	0.0						16.3	4th
5th						0.1	2.3	6.5	6.4	2.2	0.3	0.0							17.8	5th
6th				0.0	0.3	2.8	6.2	4.9	1.1	0.1									15.4	6th
7th			0.0	0.3	2.7	5.3	3.2	0.6	0.0										12.1	7th
8th		0.0	0.5	2.2	3.5	1.7	0.2												8.1	8th
9th	0.2	0.8	1.7	1.3	0.6	0.1	0.0												4.6	9th

Total	0.2	0.8	2.2	3.8	7.1	10.0	12.0	13.3	12.9	12.5	9.6	7.2	4.4	2.4	1.0	0.4	0.1			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
15-1	100.0%	0.4		0.4	0.0
14-2	85.5%	0.9		0.6	0.3	0.0
13-3	54.9%	1.3		0.6	0.6	0.1	0.0
12-4	18.7%	0.8		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0
11-5	4.4%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
10-6	0.2%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	3.9%	3.9		2.0	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.1%		45.8%	45.8%		13.1												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
15-1	0.4%		45.2%	45.1%	0.1%	13.4										0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.2		0.2%
14-2	1.0%		28.0%	28.0%		13.7												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.7
13-3	2.4%		20.8%	20.8%	0.0%	14.4												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	1.9		0.0%
12-4	4.4%		16.4%	16.4%		15.0													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	3.6
11-5	7.2%		10.0%	10.0%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	6.5
10-6	9.6%		6.8%	6.8%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	9.0
9-7	12.5%		4.3%	4.3%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.4	12.0
8-8	12.9%		2.9%	2.9%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	12.5
7-9	13.3%		1.6%	1.6%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.2	13.1
6-10	12.0%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																0.0	0.1	11.9
5-11	10.0%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	9.9
4-12	7.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.1
3-13	3.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	3.8
2-14	2.2%																							2.2
1-15	0.8%																							0.8
0-16	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		4.4%	4.4%	0.0%	15.1										0.0		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.3	2.0	95.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%